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INDIAN EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK-13 JUNE 2016

INDIAN BENCHMARKS Bearish start seen on global chaos.

Indian Indices:

Indian shares are likely to open on a bearish note as the global cues look subdued with SGX Nifty trading 71 points lower. Indian benchmark indices are likely to kick-off week on bearish note on Monday tracking weak cues from US and Asian stock amid lingering concerns about UK referendum and US Fed decision. Slower-than-expected growth in factory output numbers released post market hours of Friday may also weigh on market sentiments. Losses in the CNX Nifty Index Futures for June delivery which declined by 81 points to 8,116 at 10:34 AM Singapore time also signal that Dalal Street may open lower today.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data for the month of April came in at a disappointing (-) 0.8 per cent, dragged down primarily by the manufacturing sector, which contracted by 3.1 per cent over the same month in 2015. On Friday, the Indian benchmark indices extended their loosing spree led by sharp losses in realty and auto stocks as caution prevailed in the market ahead of IIP data for April which is scheduled to be released later in the day. Investors also maintained cautious amid lingering concerns about UK referendum and US Fed decision. The BSE SENSEX closed at 26635.75, down by 127.71 points or by 0.48 per cent, and the NSE Nifty ended at 8170.05, down by 33.55 points or by 0.41 per cent.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net sellers of Rs - 201.32 Cr in the cash segment on Friday while the DIIs were net buyers of Rs 165.62 Cr, as per the provisional figures.

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INDIAN EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK-10 JUNE 2016

Flat opening seen for Indian markets

Indian Indices:

Flat opening on D-street mirroring weakness in the Asian shares as participants remain edgy on worries regarding a UK referendum that could push Britain out of the European Union. SGX Nifty is trading at 4.00 points lower.

The focus of investors now turns to Friday’s industrial output data for April 2016 which may offer further cues over the health of the country’s economy.

India's benchmark Sensex fell nearly 1% on Thursday, its biggest single-day fall in three weeks, as caution set in ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting, while Infosys slumped on worries about its outlook. The S&P BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty fell 0.95%-0.84% each today.

Global Market:

Asian shares pulled back on Friday as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets amid festering concerns over the June 23 referendum that could see Britain exit the European Union.

U.S. stocks pared earlier losses but ended in negative territory, snapping a three-day win streak as oil futures pulled back from 10-month highs.

European shares fell for a second straight day on Thursday, weighed down by weakness among commodities-related stocks, while Essentra plunged after a profit warning.

Major Headlines of the day:

• RCom worst in telcos' call drop test at Hyderabad.

• Tata Communications installs 8k ATM units across the country.

• Visa Steel seeks shareholder nod for merger of joint venture firm.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 234.2 Cr in the cash segment on Thursday while the DIIs were net sellers of Rs -317.74 Cr, as per the provisional figures.

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INDIAN EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK-09 JUNE 2016

Indian markets tend to open higher

Indian Indices:

Indian benchmark indices are seen opening higher on Thursday tracking overnight gains in US stock and extend a rally as monsoon had hit the Kerala coast. SGX Nifty is trading at 8.50 points up.

The market is likely to sustain bullish momentum as US Fed decision to hike borrowing costs in the world’s biggest economy only gradually, potentially putting a June rate hike off the table

Indian shares ended flat on Wednesday as investors booked profit in recent outperformers, but defence stocks rose after the United States recognised the country as a 'major defence partner' during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ongoing US visit. The S&P BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty gained 0.01%-0.08% each.

Global Market:

Asian stocks edged up on Thursday after modest gains on Wall Street overnight, while a weaker dollar buoyed commodities such as gold and crude oil.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for a third straight session Wednesday to close above the psychologically important 18,000 for the first time in over a month as oil rallied to an 11-month high.

European shares fell on Wednesday after two straight days of gains, as a drop in Italian bank UniCredit and Austrian bank Erste knocked financial stocks.

Major Headlines of the day:

• IOC, MRPL pay $330 mn more in 2nd tranche to Iran.

• Infosys Finacle to power Paytm banking.

• JSW Steel logs highest-ever monthly production.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 529.16 Cr in the cash segment on Wednesday while the DIIs were net sellers of Rs -257.76 Cr, as per the provisional figures.

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INDIAN EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK-08 JUNE 2016

Bullish trend may continue at Dalal Street

Indian Indices:

Indian markets are poised to witness a gap up opening on Wednesday and extend a rally as the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) continued accommodative monetary policy stance bolsters risk taking appetite. SGX Nifty is trading at 0.50 points marginally lower.

Indian shares closed higher on Tuesday after the country's central bank kept key rates unchanged, but said it would remain 'accommodative' as it keeps a watch on inflation levels. The S&P BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty rose 0.87%-0.80% each.

Global Market:

Japan's Nikkei share average eased on Wednesday as the strong yen soured investors' mood, while energy shares continued to benefit from higher oil prices.

U.S. stocks advanced, even after the S&P 500 Index pared much of its gain in the final hour of trading, as rallies in energy producers and airline operators offset slumping health-care and bank shares.

European shares touched a one-week high on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen pushed back expectations for a rate increase without raising concerns over the strength of the world's largest economy.

Major Headlines of the day:

• Wipro proposals to revive Rajarhat SEZ in Bengal

• RCom-Aircel merger picks up pace, might conclude in July

• GMR Infra-led consortium bags Rs2,280 cr DFCC contract

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 499.73 Cr in the cash segment on Tuesday while the DIIs were net buyer of Rs 46.33 Cr, as per the provisional figures.

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INDIAN EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK-06 JUNE 2016

Indian stocks Muted start likely as Bulls take some rest.

Indian shares are likely to see a mixed start as the global cues look subdued with SGX Nifty trading 1.50 points lower.

Indian Indices:

Indian equity benchmarks are likely to open on a mixed note on Monday as investors turn their attention to the RBI’s second bi-monthly policy meet tomorrow for its prognosis on Asia’s third biggest economy even though an interest rate cut remains highly unlikely as the central bank focuses on inflation control, liquidity management and the pending policy transmission after easing policy rates by a cumulative 150 basis points over the past 18 months.

The RBI, in its April 5, 2016 policy meeting had cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent. Aside from the RBI meet, investors this week will also eye the industrial production data for the month of April and the progress of the monsoon rains.

The country’s industrial output advanced 0.1 per cent, year on year in March 2016. Meanwhile, the Met Department has ruled out any possibility of a deficient monsoon this year with 96 per cent chances of a “normal to excess” rainfall.

Global Markets:

Asian stocks dropped on Monday after dismal US May jobs data raised concerns over a loss of momentum in the world’s biggest economy, souring risk taking appetite.

China’s Shanghai Composite fell amid jitters ahead of a raft of economic data this week; Hang Seng was trading lower while Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunged over 1 per cent as a stronger yen curbed the lure for exporter stocks.

Wall Street tread water on Friday after data showed that the US economy added the fewest jobs since September 2010 in May 2016 while services expanded at the slowest pace in more than two years last month, probably putting off an interest rate hike by the Fed in the near-term.

Employment in the US grew by 38,000 in May 2016 following a downwardly revised advance of 123,000 in April 2016. The ISM’s non-manufacturing gauge fell to 52.9 in May, the weakest since February 2014, from 55.7 in April, with a reading above 50 signaling expansion.

Major Headlines of the day:

• Coal India board to discuss share buyback proposal

• ICICI Bank plans to go paperless in green drive

• OBC targets 12% credit growth in FY17.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 1585.01 Cr in the cash segment on Friday while the DIIs were net sellers of Rs -393.21 Cr, as per the provisional figures.

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INDIAN EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK-03 JUNE 2016

Bullish start likely on global support

Indian Indices:

Indian shares are likely to see a strong start as the global cues look supportive with SGX Nifty trading 32 points higher.

Indian equity benchmarks are poised to witness a gap up opening on Friday with continued optimism over Asia’s third biggest economy bolstering the appetite for risky assets. Gains in the CNX Nifty Index Futures for June delivery which advanced by 0.35 per cent or 29 points at 8,263 at 10:32 AM Singapore time also signals that Dalal Street may open higher today.

The focus today will on the May Services PMI data which will offer further cues over the country’s economic outlook. In April, the Indian services gauge eased to 53.7 from 54.3 in March, signaling a softer pace of expansion. Caution ahead of the US jobs data which may dictate the timing of the next Fed interest rate hike may weigh on sentiment. The world’s biggest economy is tipped to have added a robust 160K jobs in May with the unemployment rate slipping to 4.9 per cent, analysts’ estimates showed. A bullish jobs report may bolster the case for the Fed to raise borrowing costs as early as June, a move which may cause capital outflows from emerging markets. Meanwhile, the OPEC shunned the idea of a production ceiling while the cartel was hopeful of a recovery in global oil prices.

The European Central Bank (ECB) refrained from fresh stimulus, while raising growth and inflation forecasts for the 19-member Euro area economy. Back home, the 30-share Sensex on Thursday rallied for a second straight day, jumping by 129.21 points or by 0.48 to end at 26,843.14 driven by Coal India which surged after raising coal prices.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 851.85 Cr in the cash segment on Thursday while the DIIs were net sellers of Rs -576.86 Cr, as per the provisional figures.

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INDIAN EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK-02 JUNE 2016

Indian stocks may open gap down on weak Global cues

Indian Indices:

Indian equity benchmarks are likely to witness a bearish opening on Thursday tracking weak cues from fellow Asian peers and a listless finish at Wall Street overnight. SGX Nifty is trading 23.50 points down.

As traders across the globe stayed on the sidelines ahead of the OPEC policy meet and the US jobs report which may offer further clues over the timing of the next Fed interest rate hike, curbing risk taking appetite

Indian shares rose to their strongest level since late October on Wednesday as firms reliant on consumer demand, such as cigarette maker ITC, advanced on data showing the economy grew faster than expected in the March quarter. The S&P BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty rose 0.17%-0.24% each.

Global Markets:

Asian shares were steady on Thursday as Wall Street eked out modest gains after the latest batch of U.S. data provided few clues on when the Federal Reserve might raise rates, while a resurgent yen pressured equity markets in Japan.

US stocks eked out a gain Wednesday as investors focused on the positive aspects of the latest batch of data that showed the U.S. economy plodding along.

European shares fell on Wednesday, hit by a drop in commodity stocks and banks, while the travel sector came under pressure after the United States issued a travel alert over the possibility of attacks in Europe this summer.

Major Headlines of the day:

Tata Steel completes sale of long products segment to Greybull.
Airfare may not rise on aviation fuel hike.
Mahindra launches new compact SUV in South Africa.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 259.9 Cr in the cash segment on Wednesday while the DIIs were net sellers of Rs -160.49 Cr, as per the provisional figures.

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